Factors Affecting the Gold Bullion Price in Thailand

Abstract

This research was aimed 1) to examine the characteristics and the general condition of the gold bullion price in Thailand 2) to study the factors affecting the gold bullion price in Thailand and 3) to forecast the gold bullion price in Thailand.There were total 300 monthly secondary data, collected from January 1995 to December 2019. The data were analyzed by the Coefficients, Multiple Regression Analysis, Root Mean Squared Error, Mean Absolute Error, Mean Absolute Percentage Error, and Theil's Inequality Coefficient to test the appropriate model for the forecasting.  The findings were as the following: 1) the gold bullion price in Thailand fluctuated along with the gold bullion world market price 2) the consumer price index had a statistical positive impact on the gold bullion price in Thailand at the level of 0.01. Similarly, the Securities Exchange of Thailand index had a positive effect on the gold bullion price in Thailand at the statistically significant level of 0.01. However, the global gold prices, the USD to THB exchange rate, the global market crude oil prices, Bank of Thailand's policy interest rate, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index did not significantly impact the gold bullion price in Thailand. According to the statistic tests, it was found that such model did not have the multicollinearity, the autocorrelation and the heteroscedasticity 3) the forecasting model revealed that the statistics, used for the forecasting evaluation, was appropriated for predicting the gold bullion price.