พลวัตเชิงโครงสร้างและความไม่สมมาตรทางเพศในตลาดแรงงานไทย: หลักฐานจากการแยกองค์ประกอบแบบ Shift-Share

Kwan Phetsawang; Wonlope Khumpradith

Authors

Kwan Phetsawang Faculty of Economics, Ramkhamhaeng University
Wonlope Khumpradith Faculty of Economics, Ramkhamhaeng University

Keywords:

Labour Market Structure, Employment Restructuring, Shift-Share Decomposition, Labour Demand, Gender Asymmetry, Task Structure, Composition effect, Propensity effect

Abstract

This study examines structural change in Thailand’s labour market in the context of demographic transition and changes in the structure of employment. It draws on repeated cross-sectional data from Thailand’s Labour Force Survey, covering 68 quarters from the first quarter of 2007 to the fourth quarter of 2023. The analytical sample comprises employed wage earners aged 18–65 within the scope of the study. Occupations are classified into three task categories: abstract, routine, and manual. A shift-share decomposition is applied to separate changes in employment shares into three components: changes in workforce composition, within-group changes in employment propensities, and the interaction between the two components. The results indicate that, for several worker groups, particularly those with intermediate levels of education, changes in the employment structure are more closely associated with within-group shifts in employment propensities than changes in workforce composition alone. Gender and education specific estimates reveal a marked pattern of gender asymmetry. Among workers with primary to upper secondary or vocational education, employment propensity effects are negative for women across all three task categories This reflects limited scope for adjustment through reallocation across task categories. For men with the same levels of education, the effects are negative in abstract and routine tasks but positive in manual tasks, indicating that manual task employment may provide a partial adjustment margin for male workers. These findings suggest that structural change in employment is not gender-neutral. Labour-market policies should not therefore merely rely on broad-based supply-side upskilling. Greater emphasis should be placed on expanding access to quality jobs, supporting occupational transitions tailored to the circumstances of different worker groups, and strengthening social protection measures that address gender-specific constraints on labour market adjustment.

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