Outcome Expectations Moderates the Relationship between Representation of Voters’ Political Thinking and Voting Decision

Authors

  • Arnond Sakworawich Graduate School of Applied Statistics, National Institute of Development Administration
  • Suphat Vongsukhum-amorn Intelligence and Information Center, National Institute of Development Administration

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.61462/cujss.v49i2.727

Keywords:

outcome expectation, political thinking, voting decision, moderator variable

Abstract

This research aimed to investigate whether Thai voters base their voting decision on their political thinking or on their expectations that the candidates and/or political parties they vote for would be win the elections, or both. The dataset used was from “the pre-election countrywide survey of public opinion towards the 2001 General Elections to the House of Representative”, with a sample size of 1,500, jointly conducted by the National Statistical Office (Thailand) and the King Prajadhipok’s Institute. Our Chi-square test of independence and Log-linear model analysis revealed that Thai voters voted for the candidates and/or political parties they saw as most likely to represent their political thinking and also who and/or which were likely to win the elections. Hence, candidates and political parties should emphasize communication of their political thinking and seek to convince voters of the likelihood of their winning. Future research should focus on finding effective political communication strategies, especially those suitable for small and medium-sized political parties.

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Published

13-09-2022

How to Cite

Sakworawich, Arnond, and Suphat Vongsukhum-amorn. 2022. “Outcome Expectations Moderates the Relationship between Representation of Voters’ Political Thinking and Voting Decision”. Chulalongkorn University Journal of Social Sciences 49 (2). Bangkok, Thailand:61-82. https://doi.org/10.61462/cujss.v49i2.727.

Issue

Vol. 49 No. 2 (2019): July - December

Section

Research Articles

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